SOURCE 1
NDIA participants by LGA
December 2023 and December 2025 participant counts, take-up and two-year growth.
Livingstone Shire LGA · Central Queensland
Growing fast.Ageing faster.
Livingstone is expanding faster than the wider Central Queensland region, but the growth is not evenly shared across ages: the shire has too few younger residents and too many older residents compared with Queensland. The result is not one isolated statistic, but a chain reaction: a smaller younger base, more disability need, more pressure on families, and a support system that still misses people with the highest daily living needs.
41,906Estimated resident population, 2023
62,990Projected population by 2046
43.1 yearsMedian age — nearly five years above Queensland
12.4%Adult unpaid carer rate — highest among the 13 LGAs of Central Queensland*
Evidence is not hidden in fine print. Sources and methodology appear here, throughout the story, and again in full at the end.
See the data sources ↓The evidence behind every number.
The story I tell here is all derived from free, publicly available population, Census, disability, NDIS and local planning data. Each major chart names the source set it uses. The full bibliography and methodology are repeated at the bottom so visitors can check the evidence without hunting for it.
Yours truly,
Michael Page
SOURCE 2
ABS Census 2021
Population, age structure, unpaid care, core activity need and First Nations population.
SOURCE 3
ABS SDAC 2022
Disability prevalence estimates, including age-related prevalence.
SOURCE 4
QGSO projections, 2023 edition
Livingstone population projections from 2021 to 2046.
SOURCE 5
Regional economic profile, 2024
Population growth and regional comparison context.
SOURCE 6
Livingstone planning material
Disability Action Plan and the 2025 access and inclusion consultation.
* Central Queensland definition: The Queensland Department of State Development defines the Central Queensland Region as 13 local government areas. The full definition and citation appear in the footnote at the end of this page. Read the definition.
The problem is not growth alone.
Growth changes the scale of demand. Ageing changes its intensity. When both happen together, a disability system that is already thin does not simply remain behind — the distance between need and available support widens.
01
First, the community expands
Livingstone adds people faster than the region adds capacity.
The population is projected to rise from 39,881 in 2021 to 62,990 by 2046. That is 23,109 additional residents — roughly 924 more people each year. Population growth is visible. The slower growth of specialist services, transport and allied health capacity is much harder to see. 2, 4, 5
The visible story: homes, new residents and a larger rate base. Livingstone grows at about 1.8% a year — faster than Queensland overall and more than twice the wider Central Queensland regional rate cited in the economic profile.
The hidden story: each year’s growth enters a local service market that already has transport gaps, thin allied health supply and families carrying work that formal systems do not absorb.
1.8%
Livingstone annual growth
Compared with 1.4% for Queensland and 0.8% for the Central Queensland region.
924
Average additional residents each year
A steady increase in potential future demand for health, disability and community supports.
+58%
Population growth by 2046
From 39,881 to 62,990 under the Queensland Government medium-series projection.
02
Then, the population changes shape
Livingstone has too few young people — and too many older people.
Livingstone’s growth is not evenly distributed across age. Compared with Queensland, every age band under 45 has a smaller share of the population, while every band from 45 onward has a larger share. The balance tips at about 45 — leaving fewer younger residents to build the future and more residents entering the years when disability becomes increasingly common. 2, 3, 4
The deeper story is a younger-person deficit beside an older-person surplus.
In a shire of 41,906 people, the age imbalance is already measured in thousands. If today’s pattern persists as Livingstone grows toward 62,990 residents, the absolute gap grows with it. The four graphics below tell the same story from four different angles.
Teal — too few: Livingstone below Queensland
Orange — too many: Livingstone above Queensland
Grey — Queensland reference
Reading note: “Too few” and “too many” describe Livingstone’s age-group share relative to Queensland’s age balance. They are not judgments about the value of people in any age group.
1
Livingstone’s age profile beside Queensland
This is the original comparison chart, now using the same meaning throughout: teal marks age groups where Livingstone has too few people; orange marks age groups where Livingstone has too many; grey is the Queensland reference.
Every younger age band is below the Queensland share. The largest deficit is among people aged 25–34.
Livingstone moves above Queensland and stays above it, with the strongest surplus among people aged 55–64.
2
Livingstone as 100 people
Line up 100 residents from youngest to oldest. The faded teal figures show the younger people a Queensland-shaped community of 100 would contain but Livingstone does not. The stronger orange figures show the extra older residents.
Under 459 people missing in every 100
45–54approximately on par
55 and over8 people extra in every 100
Missing under-45s
9 in every 100
About 3,772 people in 2023, rising to about 5,669 by 2046 if the current imbalance persists.
Extra residents 55+
8 in every 100
About 3,352 people in 2023, rising to about 5,039 by 2046 if the current imbalance persists.
Total population
41,906 → 62,990
The shire is growing strongly, but that growth is not restoring an even age balance.
3
Where the gap lives
Subtract Queensland’s share from Livingstone’s for every age band. Teal bars fall left of zero: too few. Orange bars extend right: too many. The gap reverses direction at about age 45.
4
The balance tips at 45
Plot both places across a lifetime and the story becomes one continuous line: Livingstone remains below Queensland through the younger years, crosses over in the mid-40s, and stays above it through every older age band.
A community’s future is shaped by who arrives, who stays and who is missing. In Livingstone, the age balance turns in the mid-40s. That means a smaller younger base alongside a larger older population — precisely where disability prevalence and demand for unpaid care rise sharply.
7,951
people are already aged 65+
That is 20.2% of Livingstone. Applying SDAC age-specific prevalence suggests about 3,788 older residents have disability.
5,947
people are now aged 55–64
This large cohort is approaching the age range where disability prevalence rises sharply.
147%
projected growth of the 75+ cohort
The fastest-growing age group is also the group with the highest disability prevalence.
03
Families absorb the gap
When formal support does not reach a person, unpaid care does not disappear. It moves into a household.
About 4,000 Livingstone adults provide unpaid care to a person with disability, long-term illness or old age. At 12.4% of adults, Livingstone carries the highest unpaid carer burden among the 13 Local Government Areas of Central Queensland*. 2
One in eight adults is part of the hidden workforce.
These are family members and friends coordinating appointments, transport, personal care, advocacy and emergencies — usually without pay, formal recognition or reliable backup.
Unpaid carers — 4,000 peopleNDIS participants — 1,226 people
3.26:1
There are 3.26 unpaid carers for every person on the NDIS. Above-average NDIS participation has not removed the burden on families. Behind the estimated 1,020 people with severe or profound disability who are not on the NDIS are more households quietly filling the gap.
04
The system narrows the field
Livingstone’s take-up is above average. The number left outside support is still large.
A 3.11% NDIS participation rate is higher than the cited national rate of 2.76%. That is real progress. But a rate can look healthy while the absolute gap remains severe — especially in a large, older and fast-growing population. 1, 2, 3
~8,431 peopleestimated to have disability
2,235 peopleidentified with core activity need
1,226 peoplereceiving NDIS support
1,020estimated severe/profound disability gap
Above average does not mean adequate. The NDIS reaches only about 54.6% of the estimated severe/profound disability pool used in this analysis. The remaining group is not a marginal edge case; it represents people likely to need help with self-care, mobility or communication.
05
Participation is rising
NDIS growth is moving in the right direction — but it must outrun population growth and ageing just to close the distance.
Livingstone grew from 993 NDIS participants in December 2023 to 1,226 in December 2025 — a 23.3% increase. If the current participation rate simply holds as population rises, the participant count may reach about 1,539 by 2032. But the number of people needing support is also increasing. 1, 4
Fast growth does not automatically close the gap.
Livingstone records the strongest two-year NDIS growth among the selected Central Queensland LGAs in the available comparison. But because both population and disability need are rising, the scheme has to do more than maintain today’s participation rate.
Livingstone
23.3%
Central Highlands
18.0%
Rockhampton
15.4%
Gladstone
11.4%
Banana
10.0%
Barcaldine
6.7%
Longreach
6.2%
06
Why the gap persists
Four pressures sit between a plan on paper and support in real life.
These pressures do not operate as separate boxes. They compound: distance makes workforce shortages harder, workforce shortages lower plan utilisation, and lower utilisation sends more coordination and care back to families.
1
Geography and transport
Livingstone stretches from the coast into a dispersed western hinterland. Providers cluster in town centres, while many households have no practical public transport path to services.
2
Infrastructure lag
Residential growth has moved faster than the addition of providers, support coordinators, planners and community-based disability infrastructure.
3
Thin allied health supply
Low capacity-building utilisation can mean a plan exists but the occupational therapist, psychologist, speech pathologist or other clinician does not.
4
Unequal access pathways
First Nations residents and people outside the main service centres can face additional barriers to access, plan activation and culturally safe support.
Livingstone has a Disability Action Plan — but a plan is not a provider.
Livingstone Regional Council has a formal disability action framework and launched an access and inclusion consultation with Carers Queensland in 2025. These are meaningful foundations. The next test is whether planning converts into transport, workforce, provider capacity and practical access at the scale implied by 1,020 people in the severe/profound gap, 4,000 unpaid carers and a population projected to approach 63,000.
Where the story leads
Build for the population that is coming — not the one that existed ten years ago.
By 2046, Livingstone is projected to have 62,990 residents and a 75+ population 147% larger than in 2021. The unpaid carer burden is already the highest among the 13 Local Government Areas of Central Queensland*. The gap will not remain static while the community grows around it.
The data points to a clear direction: grow the formal service market, strengthen local access pathways and reduce the amount of essential disability support that households are expected to provide alone.
62,990projected residents
by 2046
by 2046
Sources, notes and method.
The evidence is repeated here in full so readers can distinguish observed counts, official projections and estimates derived by applying published prevalence rates. Projection and estimate figures should not be read as exact future counts.
SOURCE 1
National Disability Insurance Agency — Participants by Local Government Area
December 2023 and December 2025 releases. Used for participant counts, participation rate and two-year LGA growth comparisons.
SOURCE 2
Australian Bureau of Statistics — Census of Population and Housing 2021
Used for Livingstone population base, age structure, unpaid care, core activity need and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.
SOURCE 3
Australian Bureau of Statistics — Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2022
Used for overall disability prevalence and age-specific disability prevalence estimates.
SOURCE 4
Queensland Government Statistician’s Office — Population projections, 2023 edition
Medium-series projections for Livingstone from 2021 to 2046, including the 75+ cohort growth estimate.
SOURCE 5
Capricorn Enterprise — Economic Profile 2024
Used for regional population growth context and comparison rates cited in the narrative.
SOURCE 6
Livingstone Shire Council — disability and access planning material
Used for the Disability Action Plan and 2025 access and inclusion consultation context.
* Central Queensland definition: The Queensland Department of State Development defines Central Queensland Region as the local government areas of Banana, Barcaldine, Barcoo, Blackall-Tambo, Boulia, Central Highlands, Diamantina, Gladstone, Livingstone, Longreach, Rockhampton, Winton and Woorabinda. Citation: https://www.statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/regions/queenslands-regions/central-qld
Method notes: The estimate of about 8,431 people with disability applies the SDAC 2022 prevalence rate of 21.4% to a Livingstone population base of 39,398. The estimate of about 3,788 people aged 65+ with disability applies age-specific SDAC prevalence rates to Livingstone’s Census age bands. The 1,020 gap is the difference between the estimated severe/profound disability pool and the stated NDIS participant count used in the source analysis. The 2032 participant figure assumes the 3.11% participation rate remains constant as population reaches about 49,479. The age-balance graphics compare Livingstone’s age-group shares with Queensland’s: “missing” and “extra” per-100 figures are rounded, and the 2023 and 2046 head-count illustrations apply the current percentage-point imbalance to total population. The 2046 illustrations assume today’s age imbalance persists. These are analytical estimates, not administrative counts.